Football Index Podcast

Football Index conversation, insights and a few laughs

Football Index 2019 Predictions

I was reading through my blog post from about 6 months back called 'The Future of Football Index' and I thought it'd be a great to garner some 2019 predictions from the community. As it was last minute, I asked people that I know and have interacted with in the community for a while! I'm also going to give you guys some of mine whilst we're here!

Community Predictions

  • EJ: Simple Prediction - If FI continue to box clever and follow the same formula, probably with a dividend rise, I'd expect the FOOTIE to be over 100,000 by this time next year.

  • Index Profit Hunter : Mason Greenwood to reach a higher price than Romelu Lukaku at some point in 2019.

  • Buzzing Paul: At some point this year IPD will replace G&A within the #FICommunity vernacular. This will coincide with a market realisation that GKs win IPD dividends too and GKs prices will return closer to fair value. Don't expect this to happen before next season though.

  • Football Index Trader: I see a big year ahead for FI and think we will see strong market growth yet again. I think as the year roles on we will start to see dividends and savvy trading becoming increasingly important to our profits, as huge capital growth becomes harder to come by as the platform matures.

  • Ryan Freeland: 500k users by the end of 2019! I see the Share split encouraging new money, which then allows FI to increase spending in London and Ireland from a marketing standpoint. I also see FI using some of the money to then open up in new territories.

  • Oli Price-Bates: I think 2019 will be a big year for the Index. Kicking off with another share split and potentially order books later in the year, these moves will appeal to both recreational users and big investors - as a refined app and website rolls out, and new territories are added- I expect a large amount of money to move into the market and a 50% increase in users by the end of the year. Onwards and upwards!

  • Stamford: I think there will be 5 players who will break £20 in today’s money by the end of 2019. Why? Three reasons, the share split will attract new investment and make top players affordable to more users leading to a greater share ownership, secondly the order book will sharpen the focus on players who can and can’t return dividends. Lastly, I fully expect the data site to support the growth of dividend yielding players

  • Footy Index King: Before I get stuck in to my 2019 outlook let’s get some facts out there:

  1. I am an investor in FI through Seedrs.
  2. I am a trader and have a 5 figure portfolio.
  3. I am not an expert.
  4. I say it as I see it.

My opinion is aggressive and my outlook is one of caution for 2019.

Millions have been spent on marketing and the company is fully in scale up mode. Unique user numbers show that there is substantial amount of growth in terms of new users still to come.

MB and PB dividends drive the market and there is a huge weight of money in the top end players mostly following news of a second share split for Q1 2019.

For me, this rise at the top comes from existing users wallets and the shift of money from bottom end and unpopular players (defenders) in anticipation of a share split, not new sign ups and an injection of new money. How many reading this now have deposited ring fenced ISA money because the market will inevitably, obviously, surely grow? It has grown, I’m not sure it has peaked, but in 2019, I firmly believe the market will again stagnate.

How many are planning on withdrawing that additional money you promised yourself you wouldn’t deposit, seeing it as a cheeky bonus? Multiply that for every trader. I do not believe this platform can grow organically, without further share splits, without increased dividends, without deposit bonuses 4 times a year. Are FI actually making much money?

That green on your screen is not profit - the money you withdraw and bank is profit. Every time a trader sells players and withdraws it has a negative effect on the market. What is your end game? Everything has a means to an end and if you don’t have one you need an end game and a withdrawal strategy (cough recent blog). House deposit, new car, providing for your family, luxury holidays, beer? Out of all the traders who is actually realising profits? What happens if traders start doing this at the same time as each other?

So, my outlook is one of caution for 2019. Enjoy the growth that I do think will happen and want to be a part of, but I do think stagnation and in turn trader panic will occur in 2019 I’m very interested to see how FI counteract this.

I hope my opinion has made you think. Have you banked any profit or is all your money at risk? Bank some profit, enjoy life, and don’t bet (it is not investing) what you can’t afford. Have a prosperous and more importantly happy and healthy 2019, these are merely my thoughts.

  • IndexGain: FI to simplify/ improve onboarding so as to make the product more accessible/appealing to a much wider audience and in the process make Football fans as aware of FI as FPL.

  • Golfing Grandad: ‘(Using current dividend figures) At least 2 players will return over £1.30 in MB alone during the summer transfer window.’

As the domestic season finishes on the 12th May and 19/20 season will begin maybe 10th August, with only a couple of European finals and Nations League matches in the interim, there will be roughly 90 days of triple MB.

90 days of 8p = £7.20
90 days of 5p = £4.50
90 days of 2p = £1.80

With some potential mega transfers coming up in the summer, and there’s normally one or two drawn-out sagas, they would need to average 5p on 26 days of the 90.

As some players go through patches of being the media’s focus, and with little else to write about, this could quite easily happen.

FIG Predictions

On to my predictions, and I'd take these with a pinch of salt.....I have no insider info, and if you want proof- you can look at how wrong some of the ones I predicted back in July were! (in the 'future of Football Index' Blog).

Football Index to realise spammy affiliate marketing doesn't work anymore

Marketing in the modern day is really tough. Organic marketing is hard, whilst paid advertising is getting less effective and more expensive. Football Index's strength is having a massively sticky userbase, and word of mouth is the best way for this product to grow- after they've gotten the name out there via Sky, TalkSport etc. etc. One thing they have tried to leverage is people with large followings- some more effectively than others. Oli PB for example, has a large following- but in my opinion has gone about it the right way. He's an avid trader & advocate of the product, interacts with the twitter and IndexGain slack community, has appeared on the Pod and regularly writes for the FI blog. It's time for FI in 2019 to move away from the machine gun approach, and really target people who can properly represent their product. I've explained before that the way FI's business model works, is that everyone feels like a stakeholder. If you have someone who has say £1000 in FI, but stands to gain more through shoving their affiliate link down people's throats- there's a distinct change in tone. Whilst this may still get people signed up, at a decent rate- it's not the 'Football Index' way in my opinion. So in short, this prediction is also a plea- that FI get smarter with their marketing and really reward those who have contributed heavily to the reputation of the product.

Football Index announce a decimal system to come in for next season or 2020

I think this will be the last share split we'll see, and I think it makes sense that it is. A decimal system would ensure that, even if you can't afford a whole Neymar- you can own a part of him as a new user. I think this will be a good step in making FI accessible seemingly forever, without having to split again. There's been a few who have put forward the notion that we should split, and rise dividends forever but I don't really see that as a long term solution personally.

IPOs start again at rapid rates, and the IPO system is revamped

There's lots of players playing right now that haven't been released into the market. It's an issue, and the longer it goes on the bigger it becomes in my opinion. Some of these football clubs have massive followings, so having players on FI even if they aren't PB eligible makes sense (likes of Leeds, Villa, Birmingham etc.). In fact, it makes a lot of sense for FI. They are issuing bets that they don't have to pay out on for a while or potentially ever- and fans are willing to hold their favourite players in case of promotion/a big transfer. It could be a turn off for example if I support one of these teams, and join FI- then can't find my favourite....small things like that can turn people away from the platform!

Maybe they've slowed down because they want to first revamp how the system works, then release lots of players.

A Football Index trader 'committee' to be created

I think FI really felt the flip side of having a massively sticky user base with their mess up on the G&A annoucment. I think a few things were done wrong here in my opinion:

  1. The execution of the comms was done badly
  2. There was no statement from FI that this is in line with their mantra that 'your bet isn't over at the final whistle'
  3. FI should have done a better job of explaining how G&A is still a way for long term traders to gain value

If there was a group of traders that were chosen by the FI community to represent them- a union of some sorts, that FI could bounce ideas off I think it could be beneficial for everyone.

Territories

I think in 2019, we'll finally see a territory (most likely Ireland) become a real part of the market cap. We haven't really seen the impact of new territories from a market cap standpoint, and I think in 2019 we'll finally see some real money flow from other territories. I'm also going to take a wild guess and say the likes of Germany and Spain will be on the agenda in 2019!

Users

Between 350k-400k users by this time next year. I think with another marketing push in the UK, as well as the beginnings of marketing spend in other territories we'll see those user numbers fly!

Hope you enjoyed the blog and your Christmas! Thanks to everyone who's supported my content throughout 2018, and there are even better things to come next year. Happy new year everyone, I hope you have a prosperous 2019 on and off Football Index!